Beta · Tamil Nadu 2026 · Live Intelligence
Vakkucheck

Election Intelligence,
Reimagined.

Booth-level voter data. Monte Carlo seat forecasts. Alliance modelling. AI news feed. Everything Tamil Nadu's 2026 election needs — in one platform.

vakkucheck.in
vakkucheck.com
A Nilam Labs LLC Product
Idea by Kudavolai குடவோலை
234
Constituencies
~47K
Booth PDFs
6.26Cr
Total Electors 2026
10K
Monte Carlo Runs
2001→
Historical Data From
~920
CE · Kudavolai Origin
Kudavolai
Palm-Leaf Ballot · ~920 CE
Kudavolai குடவோலை
குட = pot · வோலை = leaf
Uttiramerur, Tamil Nadu
Chola Dynasty · Parantaka I Era
World's First Democratic Ballot
Idea by Kudavolai

Democracy born in
Tamil Nadu, ~920 CE

Long before ballot boxes, voting machines, or election commissions, a village in Tamil Nadu invented democracy. In Uttiramerur, during the reign of Chola king Parantaka I (~920 CE), the world's first systematic ballot election was conducted using the Kudavolai system.

"Candidates' names were written on palm leaves — one per leaf. The leaves were placed in a clay pot (குட). A child drew a leaf. Whoever's name emerged was elected."

The stone inscription at the Vaikunta Perumal Temple in Uttiramerur records candidate eligibility, term limits, and disqualification criteria — the world's first election rulebook, 1,100 years ago. Vakkucheck (வக்கு = vote · செக் = verify) honours that legacy, built by Nilam Labs LLC.

Source: Uttiramerur Stone Inscription · Archaeological Survey of India
Vaikunta Perumal Temple, Kancheepuram District, Tamil Nadu
Platform Features

Built for Tamil Nadu 2026

📊

Monte Carlo Forecast

10,000 simulations per run. Win probability per alliance. 80% confidence intervals. Updates as you adjust scenario sliders.

FORECAST ENGINE
🗳

Booth-Level Voter Data

AC 13 Kolathur: 9 booths, 6,913 electors mapped. Male · Female · Third Gender. Schema ready for all 234 ACs.

BOOTH INTELLIGENCE
⚙️

Alliance Configuration

Drag-and-drop parties between alliances. Model INDIA, AIADMK, NDA, TVK fronts. Seat projections update live.

ALLIANCE ADMIN
🏛️

Party Intelligence

2001 → 2026 vote share trends. Regional breakdown by 6 zones. Constituency sparkbars across 4 election cycles.

PARTY ANALYSIS
👥

Voter Demographics

Electorate 2001–2021. Gender ratio trends. First-time voters. Senior analysis. District-level breakdowns.

DEMOGRAPHICS
📡

AI News Feed

Live feed from News18 Tamil, Puthiyathalaimurai, Sun News, NewsTamil.tv, Dinamalar. Filter by source.

LIVE NEWS
Tamil Media Coverage

AI-curated news from every major Tamil channel

News18 Tamil
Puthiyathalaimurai
Sun News Tamil
NewsTamil.tv
Dinamalar
Thanthi TV
Polimer News
Kalaignar TV
Visitor Poll

Who do you think will win
Tamil Nadu 2026?

Cast your vote · Results update live

Ready to explore?

Tamil Nadu 2026 — every vote,
every booth, every number.

Vakkucheck brings together ECI electoral roll data, historical results from 2001–2021, and a live AI forecast model in one platform built for Tamil Nadu.

Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections

Explore historical election results from 2001 to 2021 — five elections of ECI data — or view the live 2026 AI-powered forecast (requires login).

2026 Live AI forecast
2021 DMK Alliance won
2016 AIADMK won
2011 AIADMK won
2006 DMK Alliance won
2001 AIADMK won

How Vakkucheck Works

Six integrated modules — from live signal ingestion to constituency drill-down to party intelligence — all connected through a three-stage Bayesian forecasting engine running continuously on live signals.

📊

Dashboard

The command centre. Alliance win probability rings, 234-seat projection bar, seat simulation intervals (10th/50th/90th percentile), regional seat forecast by zone, party-level vote share table, transfer efficiency module, and live Claude AI analyst commentary — all updating as signals arrive.

Monte Carlo 10k Live AI agent Seat intervals
🏛️

Party Intelligence

Select any party — DMK, AIADMK, TVK, PMK, VCK, BJP, INC and more. Statewide vote share trajectory (2006→2016→2026), regional bar chart across 6 zones, and a searchable constituency table with 2006 actuals, 2016 actuals, swing, and 2026 model forecast with inline spark bars. WIN / Competitive / Trailing status per seat.

13 parties 2006→2026 trend Spark bars
🗳️

Constituency Tracker

All 234 constituencies with 2006 ECI winner, 2016 winner, DMK+ and ADMK vote share, margin, and 2026 AI forecast. Filter by region, reservation type, 2016 result, or 2026 forecast. Click any row for a drill-down panel: vote-share bars, historical comparison table, and indicative 2026 candidate list by alliance.

HOT seat badges Safe/Lean/Tossup Drill-down panel
⚙️

Alliance Admin

The only platform where alliances are time-varying inputs. Assign or remove parties from any alliance in real time. Four scenario sliders: anti-incumbency (DMK govt), economic mood, vote transfer efficiency, and TVK vote dilution. Hit "Rerun 10k Simulations" — the entire forecast updates instantly across all 234 seats. Add entirely new parties (e.g. TVK splinter) with custom name, abbreviation, colour, and base vote share.

Party pool drag-assign TVK slider Add new party Instant rerun
📡

Signal Feed + AI Agent

A built-in AI agent auto-generates TN-specific signals every 10 seconds — polls (Lokniti-CSDS, CVoter, India Today Axis), economic indicators, alliance updates, approval ratings, and breaking events. Each signal runs a Bayesian model update then calls Claude Sonnet for a 2–3 sentence analyst note. Pause the agent anytime, or submit manual signals directly from the feed page. "Run One" fires a single signal on demand.

Auto agent (10s) Start / Pause / Run One 5 signal types Manual entry
📅

Historical Data

Alliance seat count and vote share charts for 2001–2021. Full 2016 ECI detailed results for 232 constituencies. Party-by-party historical summary with anti-incumbency pattern analysis. All five elections feed the Bayesian prior.

2001–2021 ECI 5 elections Bayesian prior
🗂️

2021 Results + Custom Reports

Full 2021 ECI results for all 234 constituencies — searchable, filterable by district, party, type, turnout, and margin. Build custom reports with 8 filters and export to CSV. A second tab tracks 2016 ECI data side by side.

234 seats 2021 8 filters CSV export
👥

Voter Demographics

Electoral roll analysis 2001–2021: electorate growth charts, male/female gender split, turnout % trends, first-time voter counts (18–19 yr), senior citizen (65+) data, 2021 age-band breakdown, and district-level gender ratios across all 38 TN districts.

ECI electoral rolls Gender split Age bands
📰

Tamil Political News Feed

Live feed from Tamil political media — News18 Tamil, Puthiyathalaimurai, Sun News, NewsTamil.tv, and Dinamalar. Filter by source, refresh on demand. Breaking news feeds directly into the signal pipeline for Bayesian model updates.

5 Tamil sources Live refresh Signal pipeline

The Three-Stage Forecasting Engine

STAGE A — VOTE SHARE MODEL

Weighted poll average + historical baseline (2001/2006/2016/2021) + anti-incumbency adjustment + economic mood + alliance transfer efficiency.

→ Statewide vote share ± confidence interval
STAGE B — SEAT CONVERSION

Per constituency: 2016 baseline + statewide swing + regional swing (6 zones: North, S.Chennai, Kongu, Central, Delta, South TN) + incumbency + TVK vote dilution + alliance transfer efficiency per seat.

→ Winner per all 234 constituencies
STAGE C — SIMULATION LAYER

10,000 Monte Carlo runs with correlated national swing shocks, region-level random effects, and local constituency noise per seat.

→ Win probability + 10th/50th/90th seat ranges
Model input weights
📊 Polls — Lokniti-CSDS, CVoter, India Today Axis 35%
📅 Historical ECI data — 2001, 2006, 2016, 2021 25%
📈 Economic signals — GSDP, welfare reach, power supply 20%
🗳️ Approval ratings — CM satisfaction, Morning Consult India 12%
📰 Alliance news — seat-sharing confirmations, defections 8%

Claude AI — Narrative Layer

Every signal triggers a Claude Sonnet call. Claude is prompted as a senior TN election analyst and returns 2–3 sentences citing Dravidian politics, caste arithmetic, and regional patterns. Commentary is stored per signal and displayed live. API key is server-side only — never exposed to the browser.

TVK — The 2026 Wildcard

Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is the biggest unknown. The admin panel has a dedicated TVK dilution slider (0–10%) adjusting how many first-time voters TVK draws from DMK — directly affecting urban Chennai and youth-heavy constituencies.

Transfer Efficiency Module

Allied votes don't transfer perfectly. The dashboard shows transfer efficiency per alliance — DMK Alliance at 72%, AIADMK Front at 75%. The admin slider adjusts this system-wide, most significantly affecting the Kongu belt (PMK→ADMK) and Dalit belt (VCK→DMK).

Book a live demo

We'll walk through the full Vakkucheck platform — live forecast, booth data, alliance modelling — with your questions answered in real time.

30 min
Live platform walkthrough with your branding
48 hrs
Custom scope + pricing proposal after the call
4–6 wks
From signed agreement to live platform
Always
Dedicated contact on counting day
Contact directly

📧 [email protected]

🌐 vakkucheck.in

Request a demo or partnership

About Vakkucheck

We are building South Asia's most rigorous AI-powered election intelligence platform — starting where the world's oldest ballot was cast. Vakkucheck is a product of Nilam Labs LLC, inspired by the Kudavolai (குடவோலை), the world's oldest democratic ballot system.

Our Mission

Kudavolai (குடவோலை) is named after the Chola-era ballot system used at Uttiramerur (~920 CE) — the world's first documented secret ballot. Over a thousand years later, we are using Bayesian modelling, real-time signals, and AI to bring that same rigour to modern democratic forecasting.

We believe election outcomes should be legible — not just to pollsters and political scientists, but to journalists, citizens, and campaigns who need to understand what is happening, why it changed, and what comes next.

Our platform does not just produce a number. It narrates each forecast shift in plain political language, explains the caste arithmetic, tracks alliance fluidity as seat-sharing negotiations evolve, and shows its work at every constituency.

By the numbers
ECI constituencies modelled 234
Elections of historical data 5
Monte Carlo simulations per update 10,000
Political parties tracked 13
Signal types ingested 5

What Vakkucheck does

📊

Live Bayesian Forecast

Three-stage model: vote share estimation → constituency seat conversion → 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Updates in real time as signals arrive from polls, alliance news, and economic data.

🏛️

Party Intelligence

Track any of 13 parties — DMK, AIADMK, TVK, PMK, VCK, BJP, INC and more — from 2006 through to the 2026 model forecast across 234 constituencies with inline spark bars.

🗳️

Constituency Tracker

All 234 seats with 2006 + 2016 ECI actuals, HOT seat badges, Safe/Lean/Tossup classification, and a drill-down panel per constituency with indicative candidate lists.

⚙️

Alliance Admin

Alliances as time-varying inputs — reassign parties live as seat-sharing evolves. Four scenario sliders: anti-incumbency, economic mood, TVK dilution, transfer efficiency.

📡

AI Agent + Signal Feed

Auto-fires signals every 10 seconds: polls, alliance updates, economic signals, approval ratings. Each triggers a Bayesian update and a Claude AI analyst note in plain political language.

👥

Voter Demographics

Electoral roll analysis 2001–2021. Electorate growth, gender split, turnout trends, first-time voter counts, age-band breakdowns, and district-level gender ratios.

Where we are going

Tamil Nadu 2026 is our proof of concept. The architecture — Bayesian priors, constituency-level data, alliance fluidity engine, AI narrative layer — is state-agnostic. We are building toward a full Indian and South Asian election intelligence network.

🇮🇳 India — State Rollout
1
Tamil Nadu 2026
Live — 234 constituencies, 5 elections of data
2
Maharashtra, Bihar
High-complexity multi-alliance states — 2025 pipeline
3
West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh
Large-electorate bellwether states
4
Lok Sabha 2029
543 constituencies, national coalition model
🌏 South & South-East Asia
🇱🇰
Sri Lanka
225-seat Parliament — ethnic coalition dynamics, Tamil minority factor
🇧🇩
Bangladesh
300-constituency Jatiya Sangsad — high-turnout democracy
🇳🇵
Nepal
Federal + provincial elections — mixed proportional system
🇵🇰
Pakistan
National Assembly — multi-party fluid alliances
🇲🇲
Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia
Southeast Asia democratic tracking — long-term roadmap

Why our architecture scales across South Asia

Every election in our target markets shares structural features: multi-party systems with fluid alliances, constituency-level FPTP or mixed voting, strong caste/ethnicity/religion factors in vote transfer, and limited quality polling. These are exactly the conditions our Bayesian model was designed for. The alliance fluidity engine, transfer efficiency module, and Bayesian prior framework are region-agnostic by design.

We are also culturally positioned. Our team combines deep Tamil Nadu political knowledge with technical expertise in probabilistic modelling. The same depth of local knowledge that makes us credible in Chennai is replicable in Colombo, Dhaka, and Kathmandu through local partnerships.

Our principles

🔍

Show your work

Every forecast includes confidence intervals, constituent assumptions, and the signal trail that moved it. We do not produce black-box numbers.

⚖️

Political neutrality

We do not advocate for any party or alliance. Our model is symmetric — it applies the same rigour to DMK and AIADMK, to ruling and opposition alike.

📰

Media-ready language

AI analyst notes are written for anchors and correspondents, not data scientists. Every forecast shift comes with a plain-language explanation citing political context.

Want to be part of this?

We are looking for media partners, research collaborators, state-level political journalists, and seed investors who believe rigorous election intelligence changes how democracies work.

[email protected]
LIVE FORECAST · Tamil Nadu 2026 · 234 seats · Bayesian model · 10,000 simulations

TN 2026 Assembly Election Forecast

Preview of the live platform. Four alliances tracked — DMK+, AIADMK Front, TVK/Third Front, and NDA. The AI agent auto-fires signals every 10 seconds when running.

Beta — Free Full Access

Sign in for live forecasts, booth data, alliance admin and more.

📊 Dashboard — Alliance Forecast
INDIA ALLIANCE (DMK+)
62%
win probability
138 seats (80%: 116–162)
AIADMK FRONT
32%
win probability
84 seats (80%: 68–102)
TVK / THIRD FRONT
4%
win probability
8 seats (80%: 0–18)
NDA / OTHERS
2%
win probability
4 seats (80%: 0–10)
PROJECTED SEAT DISTRIBUTION — MAJORITY: 118 / 234
DMK+ 138
ADMK+ 84
8
4
0 ← 118 majority threshold → 234
Win probability trend — last 20 days
Transfer efficiency module
DMK+
72%
ADMK+
75%
TVK
50%
🤖 AI analyst — live commentary
📊 POLL · CVoter · 2m ago · Strength 71%

CVoter shows DMK Alliance at 43% vs AIADMK Front at 37%. The youth cohort (18–25) shows a 6pp DMK advantage over 2021 — likely reflecting Kalaignar scheme reach and TVK voter crossover. DMK's Kongu deficit remains the critical regional vulnerability.

🤝 ALLIANCE · The Hindu · 18m ago · Strength 83%

PMK's 34-seat confirmation strengthens AIADMK Front across Kongu constituencies. Vanniyar consolidation adds ~3–4pp in 28 seats, moving 6 previously safe DMK seats into lean territory.

📈 ECONOMIC · Lokniti-CSDS · 6h ago · Strength 55%

Kalaignar schemes satisfaction index at 64% — above the 58% threshold associated with incumbent advantage. However rural power supply scores lag, partly offsetting welfare delivery gains in Delta and Central TN.

Regional seat forecast
RegionTotal Seats DMK+ Forecast ADMK+ Forecast TVK / Others Swing vs 2021
North TN3422102→ Stable
S. Chennai / Villupuram4528152↑ DMK +2
Kongu (West TN)5017303↓ DMK −2 (PMK)
Central TN3924141→ Stable
Delta (Cauvery)291991↑ DMK +1
South TN372863↑ DMK +2
Full platform — sign in to unlock
🏛️
Party Intelligence

Select any of 13 parties — DMK, AIADMK, TVK, PMK, VCK, BJP, INC and more. View 2006→2016→2026 trajectory, regional charts, and per-constituency spark bars.

🗳️
Constituency Tracker

All 234 seats with 2006 + 2016 ECI data, 2026 forecast, HOT badges, Safe/Lean/Tossup classification. Click-through drill-down with vote-share bars and candidate list.

⚙️
Alliance Admin

Assign parties between alliances as seat-sharing evolves. Add entirely new parties with custom colour and base vote share. Four scenario sliders — anti-incumbency, economic mood, TVK dilution, transfer efficiency. Rerun 10k simulations with one click.

📡
AI Agent + Signal Feed

Auto-agent fires every 10 seconds — polls, alliance news, economic data, approval ratings. Each signal runs Bayesian model update + Claude AI analyst note. Start, pause, or run one manually. Full signal history with strength bars.

📅
Historical Data

Alliance seat charts and vote share trends for 2001–2021. Full 2016 ECI detailed results for 232 constituencies. Anti-incumbency pattern analysis.

🔌
API Access (Pro)

REST API for live forecasts, constituency data, and signal feed. Embeddable widgets. White-label dashboard for broadcast partners. Webhooks for real-time pushes.

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Terms & Conditions

EFFECTIVE DATE: MARCH 2026 · BETA VERSION

1. About Vakkucheck

Vakkucheck is an election intelligence platform developed and operated by Nilam Labs LLC. The platform provides data analysis, election forecasts, voter demographic insights, and related information pertaining to the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election 2026. Vakkucheck is currently in Beta, available at vakkucheck.in and vakkucheck.com.

2. Acceptance of Terms

By accessing or using Vakkucheck, you agree to be bound by these Terms and Conditions. If you do not agree to these terms, please do not use this platform. These terms apply to all visitors, users, and others who access or use the service.

3. Use of Data & Forecasts

All election forecasts, seat projections, vote-share estimates, and alliance models provided by Vakkucheck are statistical projections only and do not represent actual election results or exit polls. Data is sourced from publicly available Election Commission of India (ECI) records and is provided for informational and research purposes only.

Forecasts are generated using Bayesian modelling and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Past performance of the model does not guarantee accuracy of future projections.

4. Not an Exit Poll or Opinion Poll

Vakkucheck is not an exit poll, opinion poll, or survey as defined under the Representation of the People Act, 1951. The visitor poll on this platform is for informational and engagement purposes only and is not intended to influence voting behaviour or be published as an opinion poll.

5. Intellectual Property

The Vakkucheck brand, platform design, forecasting methodology, and all original content are the intellectual property of Nilam Labs LLC. The name Vakkucheck is inspired by the Kudavolai (குடவோலை), the ancient Chola-era ballot system from Uttiramerur (~920 CE). Reproduction of platform content without written permission from Nilam Labs LLC is prohibited.

6. Beta Disclaimer

This platform is currently in Beta. Features may be incomplete, data may be preliminary, and the service may be interrupted or modified without notice. Nilam Labs LLC makes no warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose of Beta features.

7. Limitation of Liability

Nilam Labs LLC shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from use of or reliance on Vakkucheck data or forecasts. Users access and use the platform at their own risk.

8. Privacy

Vakkucheck does not collect personally identifiable information beyond what is voluntarily provided (e.g., demo request forms). Visitor poll responses are anonymous and aggregated. We do not sell user data to third parties.

9. Governing Law

These Terms are governed by the laws of the Republic of India. Any disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of courts in Tamil Nadu, India.

10. Contact

For questions about these Terms, contact Nilam Labs LLC via the demo request form or at vakkucheck.in.

VAKKUCHECK · NILAM LABS LLC · BETA · vakkucheck.in · vakkucheck.com