Vakkucheck — TN 2026 Election Intelligence

Projected seat distribution — 234 seats · majority: 118 · Polling: April 23, 2026

0 118 234

Win probability trend

Seat simulation — 80% interval

Regional seat forecast

2021 Actuals → 2026 Model

AI analyst — live commentary

Party-level forecast

Party	Alliance	Vote%	Δvs21	Est.Seats

Transfer efficiency module

Model parameters

Polls 35% Fundamentals 25% Economic 20% Approval 12% Events 8%

Signals processed0

Simulations10,000

Last updated—

Constituency & Candidate Tracker

2026 forecast by constituency · Historical results 2001, 2006 & 2016 (ECI data) · Click any row for drill-down

Filter:

#	Constituency	Region	Res.	2006	2016	2021 ✓	DMK+%'16	ADMK%'16	Margin'16	2026 Fcst	Conf.

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Select a constituency

Click any row to see detailed forecast

Alliance Configuration

Source: Wikipedia · 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election · as of April 2026

SPA (19 parties) — DMK, INC, CPI, CPI(M), VCK, MDMK, IUML, DMDK (joined Feb 19), MNM (Kamal Haasan), MMK, KMDKK + others · CM: MK Stalin

NDA/AIADMK+ (15 parties) — AIADMK, BJP, PMK (Anbumani, joined Jan 7), AMMK (TTV, joined Jan 21), TMC(M), AIFB, IJK + others · CM: Edappadi K Palaniswami

TVK (Solo) — Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam · Actor Vijay · All 234 constituencies · Founded Feb 2024

Others — NTK (Seeman, 234 seats), BSP, AINRC (Rangasamy), PMK-Ramadoss faction, Puthiya Tamilagam

Add New Party

Abbreviation *

Full Name *

Base Vote % (2021)

Founded Year

Party Color

TVK

Notes / Description

All Registered Parties (0)

Scenario adjustments

Anti-incumbency factor (DMK govt 2021–2026)

Headwind-4%Tailwind

Economic mood (welfare scheme satisfaction)

Negative+1%Positive

Vote transfer efficiency (0=poor, 10=perfect)

Fragmented6Full transfer

TVK (Vijay) new party vote dilution

No impact4%Major split

Unassigned parties

AI Signal Agent STOPPED

Signals: 0 Last update: — Interval: 20s

Submit Manual Signal

Type

Source

Signal Description

Favors Alliance

Strength (0–1)

Key TN 2026 signal sources

Source	Type	Quality
Lokniti-CSDS	Poll	★★★★★
CVoter / India Today	Poll	★★★★☆
IANS / PTI	News	★★★★☆
Morning Consult India	Approval	★★★★☆
TN Govt / PIB	Economic	★★★☆☆
Dinamalar / The Hindu	News	★★★☆☆

Party Intelligence

Vote share by constituency — 2001/2006 ECI data vs 2026 model forecast

Statewide vote share — 2001 → 2006 → 2016 → 2026 forecast

Regional vote share — 2001 → 2016 → 2021 → 2026 by region

Constituency vote share

#	Constituency	Region	Res.	2001 Winner	2001 Vote%	2006 Vote%	2016 Vote%	Swing '06→'16	2026 Forecast%	Swing '16→'26	2026 Status

Tamil Nadu Electoral History

ECI-verified results 2001–2021 used as Bayesian priors for the 2026 model

Alliance seat count — 2006 to 2026 forecast

Alliance vote share — historical

2016 Tamil Nadu — ECI Detailed Results (extracted)

Party	Seats	Vote%	Alliance
2001 — AIADMK ALLIANCE LANDSLIDE
AIADMK	132	31.5%	AIADMK Alliance (won 198)
PMK	23	7.6%	AIADMK Alliance
TMC	21	8.2%	AIADMK Alliance
INC	10	6.0%	AIADMK Alliance
DMK	31	30.9%	DMK Alliance (total 37)
2016 — AIADMK SOLO
AIADMK	132	41.7%	AIADMK Front (solo)
DMK	87	31.7%	DMK Alliance
INC	8	6.6%	DMK Alliance
PMK	0	5.5%	NDA
BJP	0	2.9%	NDA
CPI+CPM	0	1.5%	DMK Alliance
Total	227*	—	*232/234 parsed

Historical pattern analysis

Year	Winner	Seats	Vote%	Anti-inc?
2001	ADMK+	198	47.3%	✓ vs DMK
2006	DMK+	163	~48%	✓ vs ADMK
2011	ADMK+	203	~51%	✓ vs DMK
2016	ADMK	132	41.7%	✗ (rare)
2021	DMK+	159	~46%	✓ vs ADMK
2026	Model output	—	—	Anti-DMK likely (pattern: 2001→2006→2011→2016→2021→2026?)

Vakkucheck / Kudavolai Pattern: TN has a strong anti-incumbency alternation — broken only once (2016 ADMK re-election when DMK had split alliance with DMK-PMK rift). The pattern holds from 2001 (ADMK 198) → 2006 (DMK 163) → 2011 (ADMK 203) → 2016 (ADMK 132, rare repeat) → 2021 (DMK 159). The 2026 model weighs this pattern at 25% of the forecast prior. DMK's welfare delivery (Kalaignar schemes) provides partial buffer.

Tamil Nadu Voter Demographics

Electoral roll analysis 2001–2026 · Source: ✓ ECI Final Roll 23/02/2026 · 5.67 Cr electors · 234 ACs

TNLA Portal ↗ ECI Voter ↗ TN Assembly ↗

FOCUS YEAR:

✓ 2026 Live Data — ECI Final Roll (23/02/2026)

Real voter counts across all 234 constituencies · 38 districts

5,67,07,380 electors

Total electorate growth — 2001 to 2021 (crore)

Male vs Female electors — year-by-year

Voter turnout % — overall, male & female

First-time voters & senior citizens (65+) — lakh

Electoral roll — age band breakdown (lakhs)

Selected year snapshot — 2026

Female voter ratio % by district

Key demographic insights

Data sources

Vakkucheck வக்குச்செக்

A NILAMLABS LLC PRODUCT

Booth-level electoral roll viewer · 2026 Special Intensive Revision · AC 13 Kolathur, Chennai · Powered by ECI data

IDEA BY KUDAVOLAI · குடவோலை

Named after the world's oldest ballot system — the Kudavolai (குடவோலை), used by Chola kings at Uttiramerur, Tamil Nadu (~920 CE). Voters wrote candidates' names on palm leaves, placed them in a pot (kudavolai), and a child drew the winner. Democracy at its purest.

Part-wise elector summary — AC 13 Kolathur (9 of ~200 parts uploaded)

Part	Polling Station	Sections	♂ Male	♀ Female	3rd	Total	♀ Ratio	Gender Balance

Male vs Female — by booth

Female ratio % by booth

How to load all 234 constituencies · ~47,000 PDFs

✓ Fastest — Recommended for 234 ACs

Run: python3 vakkucheck_pdf_toolkit.py --mode template --output ./templates/
Opens a CSV with 47,000 pre-filled rows (AC, Part, PDF filename)
Fill in Male · Female · Third · Total from Page 1 Section 4 of each PDF
Import: python3 vakkucheck_pdf_toolkit.py --mode import --input filled.csv
Paste generated JS into Vakkucheck platform

💡 A team of 5 can fill all 234 ACs in one day. Use Google Sheets for collaborative entry.

CEO TN Portal ↗

Portal	Data Available	Format
CEO Tamil Nadu ↗	Electoral roll PDFs, summary stats	PDF, Excel
TNLA NEVA ↗	Roll summary by AC/booth	PDF
ECI Voter Portal ↗	Individual voter lookup	Web
TN Assembly ↗	Constituency statistics	PDF

🗳

Select a booth

Click any row for detailed breakdown

2021 Tamil Nadu Election — Official ECI Results

234 Assembly Constituencies · Source: Election Commission of India · DMK+ won 159 seats, AIADMK+ 75

2021 Actual seat distribution

0 118 (majority) 234

#	Constituency	Type	District	Winner	Party	Electors	Votes	Poll%	Margin	Margin%

Custom Election Reports

Build tailored analysis from 2021 ECI data with demographic, geographic, and performance filters

Report Filters

Party

District

Seat Type

Candidate Name

Voter Turnout

Victory Margin

Electorate Size

Gender of Winner

Report Summary

Apply filters and generate report to see summary statistics.

Tamil Political News Feed

Live feed from News18 Tamil, Puthiyathalaimurai, Sun News, NewsTamil.tv and major Tamil media

READY TO LOAD

Live · May 4, 2026 · Counting from 7:30 AM IST

Tamil Nadu Election Results 2026

Enter results as constituencies are declared · Auto-tallies seat count

Auto-fetches every 5 min

WINNER

TVK

TVK — Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam

107

seats  (89 won · 18 leading)

Predicted: 11 +96

SPA

SPA — DMK Alliance

74

seats  (DMK 60 · INC 5 · others 9)

Predicted: 142 −68

NDA

NDA — AIADMK Alliance

53

seats  (ADMK 47 · PMK 4 · BJP 1 · AMMK 1)

Predicted: 78 −25

NTK+

NTK + Others

0

seats

Predicted: 3 −3

VakkuCheck Prediction vs Actual · ECI Final · 234/234 Constituencies

TVK — Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam Actual 107 · Predicted 11 +96

SPA — DMK Alliance Actual 74 · Predicted 142 −68

NDA — AIADMK Alliance Actual 53 · Predicted 78 −25

━ Actual    ─ ─ Predicted   |   Source: ECI Official · Last updated: 09:12 PM IST, May 4 2026

Declared Results (234 / 234 declared · ECI Final)

AC#	CONSTITUENCY	WINNER	ALLIANCE	MARGIN
No results entered yet — start entering as constituencies are declared

உங்கள் வேட்பாளரை அறிவோம் · Know Your Candidate

2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections · Affidavit data from ECI via Namma Vetpalar / ADR

⭐ Featured Candidates

M. K. Stalin

மு. க. ஸ்டாலின்

DMK · கொளத்தூர்

💰 ₹9 Cr 70 L · ✓ No cases

Edappadi K. Palaniswami

💰 ₹2 Cr 14 L · ✓ No cases

Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan

தமிழிசை சௌந்தரராஜன்

BJP · மயிலாப்பூர்

💰 ₹5 Cr 12 L · ✓ No cases

AIADMK · தொண்டாமுத்தூர்

👤 Age 62 · Postgraduate

Vanathi Srinivasan

வணதி சீனிவாசன்

BJP · கோயம்புத்தூர் வடக்கு

👤 Age 52 · Postgraduate

🔍 Search All Candidates

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Data: namma-vetpalar.fly.dev · myneta.info · ECI Affidavit Archive via ADR. Self-declared affidavit data. Official source: affidavit.eci.gov.in